"Indeed, we at FiveThirtyEight are mildly bearish on Bush relative to the consensus."

"If he�s not able to make a good electability case � and his favorability ratings don�t help � Republicans have little reason to pick him ahead of alternatives who are closer to the base ideologically."

But it�s Bush�s nomination chances we�re bearish about � in many ways, the nomination is the tougher hurdle since it�s a multi-candidate race. In analyzing the general election race, it�s only the conditional probabilities that matter. If Bush is good enough to win the primary, he�s probably good enough to give Republicans about a 50-50 shot of winning next November.

 That's from 4 days ago. So's this: Jeb eats pie.