"Indeed, we at FiveThirtyEight are mildly bearish on Bush relative to the consensus."

"If he�s not able to make a good electability case � and his favorability ratings don�t help � Republicans have little reason to pick him ahead of alternatives who are closer to the base ideologically."

But it�s Bush�s nomination chances we�re bearish about � in many ways, the nomination is the tougher hurdle since it�s a multi-candidate race. In analyzing the general election race, it�s only the conditional probabilities that matter. If Bush is good enough to win the primary, he�s probably good enough to give Republicans about a 50-50 shot of winning next November.

 That's from 4 days ago. So's this: Jeb eats pie.

"Should You Get Married (Or Divorced) For Tax Reasons?"

Do the math.

Whether you get a tax bonus by being married or end up paying the marriage penalty depends on how much income you and your partner make and how it�s divided between you. Type your own numbers in [at the link] to see how marriage affects your taxes.

The link goes to FiveThirtyEight, where I love the update:

In response to comments on Twitter, we�ve changed the color scheme of these graphics from green-and-red to blue-and-red to make it possible for people with red-green colorblindness to read them clearly.

"FiveThirtyEight founder and statistics guru Nate Silver has accused Ezra Klein's Vox.com of stealing other people's charts without attribution."

"'Yo, @voxdotcom: Y'all should probably stop stealing people's charts without proper attribution,' he tweeted Monday. 'You do this all the time, to 538 & others.'"